01 · GridUnder the oval
A corridor has to shed load when the auroral current arrives.
THE BINNACLE puts every coronal mass ejection in flight on the Sun–Earth line, shapes Earth's magnetic shield with the solar wind actually measured, keeps every forecast run as its own issuance, and seals each call with exactly what the instruments showed.
Five kinds of operation the Sun can force a decision on. The assets on the desk are a rehearsal of these calls, at real coordinates.
A corridor has to shed load when the auroral current arrives.
An R-scale blackout moves the track south of the polar cap.
When the shield crosses 6.6 Earth radii, the fleet goes safe.
GNSS at high latitude fails the precision work, so the survey stops.
When GNSS scintillates, the order clock runs on its own oscillator.
And for whoever is asked, afterward, what was known when the decision was made.
The same ejection is forecast more than once, and the runs do not agree. The call still has to be made, and later it has to be shown. I built the Binnacle so that picture stays: each forecast kept as its own issuance, the magnetic shield shaped by the wind that was measured, and the decision sealed to exactly what the instruments showed. Official watches and warnings still come from NOAA.
Public observations and published models are kept distinct. The ejections, runs, flares and shocks come from NASA's DONKI catalogue; the geomagnetic record from GFZ Potsdam; the solar wind and Dst from NASA's OMNI merge; the operational scales, the last week of L1 wind, the forecast and the auroral grid from NOAA SWPC, all taken . Where a gap is bridged by inference, the readout says so.
Every WSA-Enlil run over the period that predicted an Earth arrival is scored against the shock DONKI logged for the same ejection: how many hours early or late, at what lead, and whether a predicted arrival came at all. This validation view describes the built-in data snapshot.
Each dot is one run: predicted arrival minus the observed shock, against how far ahead the run was made. The band is ± 12 h.
A transmission substation under the auroral oval, a polar air route on HF, a downlink in Svalbard, a survey vessel on RTK, an exchange colocation whose order timestamps hang on GNSS timing, a polar constellation. Each carries one operating rule on one metric and the action that follows, so no judgement is invented at three in the morning.
Three site groups ship with the desk, North Atlantic and Nordic, North America and the southern hemisphere, as synthetic assets at real locations. Replace them with yours; each is a few lines of JSON.
Every call is sealed into a SHA-256 hash chain with the state of both instruments at that moment: the valid time, Kp and its provenance, the measured wind and the magnetopause it gives, the ejection in focus with the run you had selected and what it predicted, the arrival outlook, every site's reading. Verify the chain on the spot. Export it as a studio.evidence.v1 pack.
The desk is a single HTML file with the 3D engine, the data snapshot and the evidence chain inside it. The built-in data snapshot supports replay. Direct public feeds can refresh where available; the original Vercel package also includes NASA and NOAA proxy functions.
Each front follows the drag-based model of Vršnak et al. (2013), with the drag parameter γ fitted per run so the front reaches 1 AU exactly when that run's Enlil arrival says. Switch runs and the front moves.
Shue et al. (1998) magnetopause from the measured density, speed and Bz; a bow shock ahead of it; dipole field lines clipped where they cross the boundary; the ring current scaled by Dst.
An analytic oval in dipole coordinates that widens and moves equatorward with Kp, dimmed on the day side, replaced by NOAA's OVATION grid at the hour it was issued.
Every run with a predicted arrival against DONKI's shock log: absolute error, bias, share within ±12 h, hits, false alarms, misses, predicted against observed Kp, run-to-run drift.
studio.evidence.v1 pack: {seq, type, ts, actor, payload, prev, hash}, SHA-256 over sorted-key JSON, verifiable in THE VERIFIER. The chain persists with the page, is re-verified on every load, and can be exported and resumed elsewhere.
Drop the folder on Vercel. index.html is this page, app/ is the desk, api/ turns on the live feed; add a free NASA_API_KEY.